Pete Aling <pete@unblinkinginsight.com> is having trouble getting -ml- to
iterate with his likelihood evaluator:
> I'm using STATA to do MLE and I'm using the lf method.
>
> I have only 1 variable, interest rate and it is explained only as a function
> of its previous value. The coefficients however are complex and non-linear
> thus I need to hard code the lag into the likelihood function. I'm not sure
> whether I've done this correctly since I get the following result when I run
> my do file.
> initial: log likelihood = -<inf> (could not be evaluated)
>
> could not find feasible values
> r(491);
>
> The process that the interest rate follows is this
>
> tbrate = exp(beta)*L.tbrate + (alpha/beta)*(exp(beta)-1) + e
>
> where e is an error term. The likelihood function is in the paper and is
> based on the form of tbrate and the properties of the error term.
> Here is a copy of my code. If anyone has more experience with this and might
> be able to help I'd appreciate it. tbrate is the interest rate variable and
> ltbrate is its lagged values.
> capture program drop myest
> program define myest
> version 6
>
> args lnf theta1 theta2 theta3 theta4
> tempvar a b c d e
> quietly gen double `a'= `theta3'/(2*`theta2')
> quietly gen double `b'= exp(2*`theta2') - 1
> quietly gen double `c'= 2*`theta4'
> quietly gen double `d'= exp(`theta2')
> quietly gen double `e'= `theta1'/`theta2'
> quietly replace `lnf' = (ln(`a'*`b'*(ltbrate)^`c')) + (($ml_y1-`d'*ltbrate-`e'*(`d'-1))^2)/(`a'*`b'*(ltbrate)^`c')
> end
> ml model lf myest (tbrate) /alpha /beta /sigma2 /gamma
> ml maximize
Pete does not say which Stata release he is using, and although he has a
-version 6- in his likelihood evaluator I will assume Stata 8.2.
I found the following issues with Pete's code:
1. The -ml model- statements specifies 5 equations, but -myest- only
identifies 4. I'll assume that '/alpha' was meant to be the first equation,
thus the -ml model- statement should be:
ml model lf myest (alpha: tbrate) /beta /sigma2 /gamma
2. The dependent variable is not specified correctly; as coded above -ml-
thinks -tbrate- is an independent variable, thus the -ml model- statement
should be further changed to:
ml model lf myest (alpha: tbrate =) /beta /sigma2 /gamma
3. -myest- refers to '$ml_y1' when it should be referring to '$ML_y1'
(capital M and capital L).
4. The log-likelihood formula is up-side-down, and appears to be normal
density function (without the square root of 2*pi and missing a sqrt or 0.5 in
the first -ln()- term). When possible I prefer to code with Stata's built-in
functions to simplify my expressions, this also keeps me from making mistakes
in my formulas. In this case, I would use the -normden()- function
(also known as -normalden()- in Stata 9).
5. -ml- does not get to see -ltbrate-, thus it cannot exclude the 1 expected
missing value from the estimation sample. This is easily fixed with an -if-
statement in the call to -ml-.
Since I do not have Pete's dataset, I used the auto data to verify that my
changes would result in a converged model fit. Here is my do-file:
***** BEGIN:
clear
capture program drop myest
program define myest
version 8.2
args lnf alpha beta lns2 gamma
tempvar a b c d e m s
quietly gen double `a' = exp(`lns2')/(2*`beta')
quietly gen double `b' = exp(2*`beta') - 1
quietly gen double `c' = 2*`gamma'
quietly gen double `d' = exp(`beta')
quietly gen double `e' = `alpha'/`beta'
quietly gen double `m' = `d'*ltbrate-`e'*(`d'-1)
quietly gen double `s' = `a'*`b'*(ltbrate)^`c'
quietly replace `lnf' = ln(normalden($ML_y1,`m',`s'))
end
* surrogate for Pete's data
sysuse auto
sort mpg
gen t = _n
tsset t
rename mpg tbrate
gen ltbrate = l.tbrate
ml model lf myest (alpha: tbrate=) /beta /lnsigma2 /gamma if ltbrate < .
ml init /beta = 1 /gamma = 1
ml maximize
***** END:
Note that I added my own initial values for '/beta' and '/gamma', this was to
prevent -ml- from having to use random initial values caused by starting out
with a missing log-likelihood (-ml-'s default initial values are all 0's
resulting in missing values in tempvars `a' and `e').
--Jeff
jpitblado@stata.com
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