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st: Confidence intervals in time series


From   Edgard Alfonso Polanco Aguilar <edgard.polanco@gmail.com>
To   statalist <statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu>
Subject   st: Confidence intervals in time series
Date   Thu, 26 Jan 2006 13:28:12 -0500

Hello Statalisters

I'm working in Stata9 SE for Windows with the following time series
model: arima x, arima(p,d,q) sarima(P,D,Q,S) noconstant. I already
have forecasted values and now I'm interested in finding the
confidence intervals for those values.

I've tried finding the standar errors of the prediction with "predict
x_error, stdp" but Stata gives me the following error "variable ma not
found". I know I'm getting this error because the lack of a constant
term, but when I have it "x_error " contains in every observation the
standar error of the constant.

I've also tried with predictnl but somehow I can't figure out the rigth syntax.

Can anybody help me with this?

Thank you very much
Edgard

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