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From |
Johannes Muck <[email protected]> |

To |
[email protected] |

Subject |
AW: AW: RE: RE: st: Unit roots in non linear regression models |

Date |
Sun, 13 Feb 2011 13:38:33 +0100 |

Thank you very much Syed and Nick for your quick replies. I have searched through a couple of econometrics textbooks, including books on nonlinear time series analysis. However I could not find information on the theory of nonlinear cointegration. Do you happen to know some literature that deals with that kind of problem? Thanks, Johannes Muck Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics -----Ursprüngliche Nachricht----- Von: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] Im Auftrag von Syed Basher Gesendet: Freitag, 11. Februar 2011 12:12 An: [email protected] Betreff: Re: AW: RE: RE: st: Unit roots in non linear regression models Hi Johannes, You have asked three questions. My answers are in boldface (don't know if they satisfy you): - Whether the spurious regression problem due to integrated time series is also a problem with nonlinear regression models >> Yes, if xt and yt are I(1), that is unit root, they matter for both linear and >>non-linear models. - If the answer is yes: how can I test whether spurious regression is a problem in my nonlinear model? >> If you suspect a non-linear relationship, why not check for the existence of a >>non-linear cointegration? I don't know whether Stata has a routine for this, but >>I know you can obtain a code in Gauss. From the definition of your variables, it >>appears that a long-run relationship is possible. - If spurious regression is a problem in my model: what are possible remedies? >> Simple, check the economic theory behind your model. Hope this helps. Syed Basher Qatar National Food Security Programme ----- Original Message ---- From: Johannes Muck <[email protected]> To: [email protected] Sent: Fri, February 11, 2011 1:35:30 PM Subject: AW: RE: RE: st: Unit roots in non linear regression models I will try to clarify my question: If we go back to the linear case and look at two random variables, say y and x, both of which are independent I(1) processes so that: y_t = y_t-1 + a_t and x_t = x_t-1 + e_t with a_t and e_t being i.i.d. innovations with mean zero and constant variances. If I run a regression of y_t on x_t this will often result in a significant coefficient for x although there is no relationship between y and x (spurious regression problem). My main question now is whether this problem carries over to the nonlinear case, so that in my nonlinear regression model the coefficients a1 - a4 and b0 - b2 are estimated to have a significant impact on y although in reality they don't. My two questions posted earlier refer to this question. In particular I would like to know: - Whether the spurious regression problem due to integrated time series is also a problem with nonlinear regression models - If the answer is yes: how can I test whether spurious regression is a problem in my nonlinear model? - If spurious regression is a problem in my model: what are possible remedies? Thanks, Johannes Muck -----Ursprüngliche Nachricht----- Von: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] Im Auftrag von Nick Cox Gesendet: Donnerstag, 10. Februar 2011 13:11 An: '[email protected]' Betreff: st: RE: RE: Unit roots in non linear regression models I see that the b_i could have differing signs, but my main point remains similar. Nick [email protected] -----Original Message----- From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Nick Cox Sent: 10 February 2011 11:57 To: '[email protected]' Subject: st: RE: Unit roots in non linear regression models I don't understand this at all. If your main idea about dynamics is that of exponential decline, your series can hardly be stationary. The two parts of your question appear to be contradictory. Perhaps you mean something more specific, such as stationarity of some error term, but please clarify. Nick [email protected] Johannes Muck I would like to estimate a nonlinear regression model of the form y_it = a_i*(1 - exp(-b_i*t)) whereby a_i = exp(a1*x1 + a2*x1^2 + a3*x2 + a4*x3) and b_i = b0 + b1*z1 + b2*z2 The economic interpretation of the model is as follows: y_it denotes company i's market share in period t, a_i denotes company i's long-term market share, and b_it represents company i's speed of convergence towards its long-term market share. y_it is observed for 129 companies for 63 periods on average. I tested whether each of the 129 time series exhibits a unit root using the command -by company, sort: kpss y- the test strongly suggests that most of the 129 time series exhibit a unit root. I have two questions: 1) Can standard unit-root tests be applied although I am estimating a nonlinear model? 2) Is there a possible remedy for the non-stationarity of y_it? From my intuition I would say that using first-differencing will be no use in the nonlinear case. * * For searches and help try: * http://www.stata.com/help.cgi?search * http://www.stata.com/support/statalist/faq * http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/ * * For searches and help try: * http://www.stata.com/help.cgi?search * http://www.stata.com/support/statalist/faq * http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/ * * For searches and help try: * http://www.stata.com/help.cgi?search * http://www.stata.com/support/statalist/faq * http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/ * * For searches and help try: * http://www.stata.com/help.cgi?search * http://www.stata.com/support/statalist/faq * http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/

**Follow-Ups**:**Re: AW: AW: RE: RE: st: Unit roots in non linear regression models***From:*Syed Basher <[email protected]>

**RE: AW: RE: RE: st: Unit roots in non linear regression models***From:*DE SOUZA Eric <[email protected]>

**References**:**st: Unit roots in non linear regression models***From:*Johannes Muck <[email protected]>

**st: RE: Unit roots in non linear regression models***From:*Nick Cox <[email protected]>

**st: RE: RE: Unit roots in non linear regression models***From:*Nick Cox <[email protected]>

**AW: RE: RE: st: Unit roots in non linear regression models***From:*Johannes Muck <[email protected]>

**Re: AW: RE: RE: st: Unit roots in non linear regression models***From:*Syed Basher <[email protected]>

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