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st: Estimation VARMA model in state space form--not cancave


From   xuyongdeng <[email protected]>
To   [email protected]
Subject   st: Estimation VARMA model in state space form--not cancave
Date   Fri, 27 Aug 2010 07:15:39 -0700 (PDT)

I am estimating a three variables VARMA(1,1) model. I firstly transfor the
VARMA model into a state space model, where it seems to be a 6 state
equations and 3 observed equations model. I try several times, but each time
no matter how many iteration it is done, the log likelyhood function always
appears not concave.
Does anyone know what the problem is?

The programme are as follow:
space (u1 l.u1 l.u2 l.u3 l.u4 l.u5 l.u6 e.u1,state)
 >      (u2 l.u1 l.u2 l.u3 l.u4 l.u5 l.u6 e.u2,state)
 >      (u3 l.u1 l.u2 l.u3 l.u4 l.u5 l.u6 e.u3,state)
 >      (u4 e.u1,state noconstant)
 >      (u5 e.u2,state noconstant)
 >      (u6 e.u3,state noconstant)
 >      (duraion u1 u2 u3, noconstant) 
>       (volume u1 u2 u3, noconstant) 
>       (returnsqr u1 u2 u3, noconstant)
>       constraint(1/6)  covstate(diagonal) 

duration volume and returnsqr are three observed variables
-- 
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