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Re: st: VWLS for Trend Analysis

From   Maarten buis <[email protected]>
To   [email protected]
Subject   Re: st: VWLS for Trend Analysis
Date   Thu, 11 Sep 2008 21:27:07 +0100 (BST)

> --- [email protected] wrote:
> > I have rates (=injuries/time) and their accompanying confidence  
> > intervals for a 12 month period (ie 12 rates).

--- Maarten buis <[email protected]> wrote:
> I wouldn't put too much faith in those trends though. 

To expand on that point: I am generally a bit skeptical about tests,
and I would be careful in this case but this remark had a more
substantive background. Many things change over the seasons, and you
have only 12 months. So, any long term trend (which is what you seem to
be interested in) is likely to be swamped seasonal variation.

-- Maarten

Maarten L. Buis
Department of Social Research Methodology
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Boelelaan 1081
1081 HV Amsterdam
The Netherlands

visiting address:
Buitenveldertselaan 3 (Metropolitan), room N515

+31 20 5986715

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