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# Re: st: confidence intervals of predicted risk after stcox

 From Steve Samuels To statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu Subject Re: st: confidence intervals of predicted risk after stcox Date Fri, 26 Oct 2012 17:15:04 -0400

```Mario, when I run your code, and sum the new variables, I get:

Variable |       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
lb15 |        48    .2283326    .2110915   .0112244   .6184661
risk15 |        48    .4723272     .343838   .0406233   .9987398
ub15 |        48    .7089512    .3057171   .1413257          1

I see nothing strange about them. What is it that does not make sense to you?

Steve

On Oct 26, 2012, at 6:45 AM, petretta@unina.it wrote:

Hi all,

I use Stata/IC 12.1 for Windows (32-bit).

I run a Cox model to calculate for each patient the predicted probability
of event at 15 months, using predict xb, predict basesurv and adjiusting
the baseline risk

webuse cancer, clear
gen age40=age-40
stcox age40 i.drug
predict xb, xb
predict basesurv, basesurv
sum basesurv if _t<16
scalar base15 = r(min)
gen risk15 = 1 - base15^exp(xb)

I ask if it is possible to have also the 95% confidence intervals of these
estimate.

I try:

predict se_xb, stdp
gen lb = xb - invnormal(0.975)*se_xb
gen ub = xb + invnormal(0.975)*se_xb
gen lb15 = 1 - base15^exp(lb)
gen ub15 = 1 - base15^exp(ub)

but the results seems do not have sense.

Mario Petretta
Dpt. of Internal Medicine, Cardiology and Heart Surgery
Naples University Federico II -Italy

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