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# Re: st: Predicting survival at a specific time following generalized gamma regression

 From Steve Samuels <[email protected]> To [email protected] Subject Re: st: Predicting survival at a specific time following generalized gamma regression Date Wed, 11 Jul 2012 10:01:25 -0400

```Thomas: Here's an example. You don't need to use Bobby's fake data trick,
but I use it for comparison. Note that in writing to Statalist, the FAQ
suggest that you illustrate your problem with a data set available to all.

*****************************************
webuse drugtr, clear
streg drug age, dist(gamma) time coeflegend

gen old_t = _t
replace _t = 20
predict t_surv, surv

local myt = 20
#delim ;
predictnl surv_`myt' =
1- gammap( _b[kappa:_cons]^(-2),
(_b[kappa:_cons]^(-2))*exp(_b[kappa:_cons]*
(log(`myt')-xb())/exp(_b[ln_sig:_cons]))),
se(se_`myt') ci(low_`myt' upp_`myt');
#delim cr

sum t_surv surv_* se* low* upp*
*********************************************

You should be able to use the -predictnl- statement
without change if you define
local myt = 365.25

Using a local variable will also allow you to use a loop over
multiple times.

In my example I used the fact that estimated kappa >0.  If kappa<0, replace
"1-gammap"  with "gammap".

Steve
[email protected]

On Jul 11, 2012, at 7:24 AM, Thomas Inns wrote:

Hello,

If someone could kindly take the time to help me I'd be very appreciative. I'm try to predict the probability of survival at one year following infection.
I'm using a parametric survival model with a generalized gamma distribution and an accelerated failure-time metric (streg, distribution(gamma) time).

I have used the streg postestimation command "predict, surv", but I can't work out how to put a confidence interval around my predicted survival probability at one year following infection. Is this possible? And if so, do you know how I might do this?

Below is my code, inspired by Bobby Gutierrez's post at http://www.stata.com/statalist/archive/2010-12/msg00647.html.

Thanks,
Thomas Inns

*************CODE BEGINS*************
streg i.ribolog i.gender i.agetri i.year i.ftbin##i.trustapp, d(gamma) time

****predict conditional survivor function (probability of survival past time t)
****(time t = 1 year)
*prediction at t = 365.25
gen tt = 365.25

*keep old _t
gen t_old = _t

*put in _t you want to use for prediction
replace _t = tt

*predict surival past time _t (one year)
predict t_surv, surv

label var t_surv "gamma prediction"

*summarise these predictions
summ t_surv, detail
**************CODE ENDS**************

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