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From | Cameron McIntosh <cnm100@hotmail.com> |
To | STATA LIST <statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu> |
Subject | RE: st: Forecasting with montly data |
Date | Sat, 7 Jan 2012 16:41:14 -0500 |
Hi Lisa, Well, as the simplest method, you could just extrapolate from the existing trend, say by regressing visits on time to get average monthly change and then away you go with your six-month prediction of the state of the world. But that's pretty crude. I'm assuming, though, that you also have some (time-stable and time-varying) covariates that you could use to model the trend -- that would help in building a more complex prediction model. Do you also have some other aggregate outcomes that you could model as co-evolving with doctor visits? Too bad you don't have individual-level data, as a microsimulation would be a useful approach (following a statistical model to get parameter estimates). Anyway, take a look at: Yaffee, R.A. (2007). Stata 10 (Time Series and Forecasting). Journal of Statistical Software, 23, Software Review 1.http://www.jstatsoft.org/v23/s01/paper Yaffee's book on the subject is also soon to be available: http://www.amazon.ca/Introduction-Forecasting-Time-Using-Stata/dp/1597180157 Cam > Date: Sat, 7 Jan 2012 06:52:43 -0800 > From: lisa_owen100@yahoo.ca > Subject: st: Forecasting with montly data > To: statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu > > Dear Statalist, > Happy new year. I have montly aggregate data for total number of doctor visits in a district for 12 months. I want to use this data to forecast what the number of visits will be in the next 6 months, if possibe make a monthly prediction for each month with update. > Please can somebody suggest what is the appropriate method of doing this in stata. > Thanks > Lisa Owen > * > * For searches and help try: > * http://www.stata.com/help.cgi?search > * http://www.stata.com/support/statalist/faq > * http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/ * * For searches and help try: * http://www.stata.com/help.cgi?search * http://www.stata.com/support/statalist/faq * http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/