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st: R: Gene-incidence question/simulation

From   "Carlo Lazzaro" <>
To   <>
Subject   st: R: Gene-incidence question/simulation
Date   Sun, 22 Mar 2009 17:02:55 +0100

Dear Moleps,
at a very first glance, this seems a job for a bayesian statistician.
A hopefully useful refeence might be: Parmigiani G. Modelling in Medical
Decision Making. A Bayesian Approach. Chichester: Wiley, 2002. 

Sorry I cannot be more helpful as far as Stata codes are concerned.

Kind Regards,

-----Messaggio originale-----
[] Per conto di moleps islon
Inviato: domenica 22 marzo 2009 15.37
Oggetto: st: Gene-incidence question/simulation

Dear statalisters,
I'm studying a tumor A that has a probability (x) of a being linked to
a genetic mutation (B) that also predisposes (penetrance approx 65%(y)
by 70 years) to condition Z. Now I've got 217 cases of A that resulted
in 11 cases of Z over 8534 years of followup years (among the 217
cases). I need to determine the number of patients with B given that
there is also a background incidence of 6/100000 for Z.We know that
x<<y. Besides running a simulation is there a more analytical way of
estimating x and y given my data???

Best wishes,
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