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st: granger causality tests


From   Ama Osei <spurred@gmail.com>
To   statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu
Subject   st: granger causality tests
Date   Tue, 9 Aug 2011 14:49:32 -0400

Hello everyone,

I have run a granger test to see whether interest rates granger cause
food prices (montly data). The results are below. I will be grateful
to get help on how to interpret the results. thank you.


regress primerate L(1/9).primerate L(1/9).maize

      Source |       SS       df       MS              Number of obs =     367
-------------+------------------------------           F( 18,   348) = 2478.92
       Model |  4231.90446    18  235.105803           Prob > F      =  0.0000
    Residual |  33.0049721   348  .094841874           R-squared     =  0.9923
-------------+------------------------------           Adj R-squared =  0.9919
       Total |  4264.90943   366   11.652758           Root MSE      =  .30796

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   primerate |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   primerate |
         L1. |   1.507759   .0503791    29.93   0.000     1.408673    1.606845
         L2. |   -.493322   .0936639    -5.27   0.000    -.6775404   -.3091035
         L3. |  -.0716562    .092797    -0.77   0.441    -.2541698    .1108574
         L4. |   -.126144    .083917    -1.50   0.134    -.2911924    .0389044
         L5. |   .4189321   .0829686     5.05   0.000     .2557492     .582115
         L6. |  -.5091915   .0835104    -6.10   0.000      -.67344   -.3449429
         L7. |   .3594211   .0872325     4.12   0.000     .1878518    .5309903
         L8. |    .149614   .0789657     1.89   0.059    -.0056962    .3049241
         L9. |  -.2466233   .0403135    -6.12   0.000    -.3259121   -.1673346
             |
       maize |
         L1. |   .0008252   .0020797     0.40   0.692    -.0032652    .0049156
         L2. |  -.0000638   .0033384    -0.02   0.985    -.0066298    .0065023
         L3. |  -.0020565   .0033885    -0.61   0.544     -.008721    .0046081
         L4. |   .0026804   .0034124     0.79   0.433    -.0040311     .009392
         L5. |  -.0003831   .0034491    -0.11   0.912    -.0071667    .0064006
         L6. |    .001566   .0034052     0.46   0.646    -.0051314    .0082634
         L7. |  -.0050706   .0034435    -1.47   0.142    -.0118432     .001702
         L8. |   .0031898   .0034433     0.93   0.355    -.0035824     .009962
         L9. |  -.0013211   .0022042    -0.60   0.549    -.0056563    .0030141
             |
       _cons |   .1574309   .0800205     1.97   0.050     .0000462    .3148156
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. test L1.maize L2.maize L3.maize L4.maize L5.maize L6.maize L7.maize
L8.maize L9.maize

 ( 1)  L.maize = 0
 ( 2)  L2.maize = 0
 ( 3)  L3.maize = 0
 ( 4)  L4.maize = 0
 ( 5)  L5.maize = 0
 ( 6)  L6.maize = 0
 ( 7)  L7.maize = 0
 ( 8)  L8.maize = 0
 ( 9)  L9.maize = 0

       F(  9,   348) =    0.67
            Prob > F =    0.7324

Regards,




Ama Osei
Uof Ghana
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