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From |
Richard Goldstein <richgold@ix.netcom.com> |

To |
statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu |

Subject |
Re: st: probability question |

Date |
Wed, 28 Oct 2009 10:07:24 -0400 |

I don't understand when you say "the probability that the client is wearing a hat is 3/4."; a hat is worn on 4 out of 120 days. if you could explain this a bit further, that would be great vmz@vol.net.mt wrote: > the probability that it rains on a given day is 7/120.The probability > that it rains on three given days is [7/120]^3.The probability that the > client is wearing a hat is 3/4.The probability that it rains on three > given days and that the client is wearing a hat is [[7/120]^3] * 3/4 = > 00014887,the way I see it. > > n 28/10/2009, "Richard Williams" <Richard.A.Williams.5@ND.edu> wrote: > >> At 08:22 AM 10/28/2009, Jeph Herrin wrote: >> >>> Prob(rain) = 7/120 >>> Prob(no rain) = 113/120 >>> >>> X=days it rains on hat >>> >>> Prob(X=3)=c(4,3)*(7/120)^3*(113/120)^1 >>> =4*0.0001985*0.94 >>> =0.0007477 >>> >>> >>> not much chance! >> Don't the probabilities change though? e.g. if it rains on the first >> day, then the probability of rain on the 2nd day is 6/119. >> >> Maybe Maarten can just run a couple million simulations for us... >> >> >> ------------------------------------------- >> Richard Williams, Notre Dame Dept of Sociology >> OFFICE: (574)631-6668, (574)631-6463 >> HOME: (574)289-5227 >> EMAIL: Richard.A.Williams.5@ND.Edu >> WWW: http://www.nd.edu/~rwilliam * * For searches and help try: * http://www.stata.com/help.cgi?search * http://www.stata.com/support/statalist/faq * http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/

**References**:**Re: st: probability question***From:*"vmz@vol.net.mt" <vmz@vol.net.mt>

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