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st: forecasting


From   "Sergio Goldbaum" <Sergio.Goldbaum@fgv.br>
To   <statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu>
Subject   st: forecasting
Date   Wed, 8 Apr 2009 18:22:55 -0300

Dear Statalisters
 
Please let me adress a question about forecasting.
My database includes annual consumption of residential electricity from 1980 till 2007. I am forecasting consumption of electricity from 2008 till 2020. 
I have regressed a simple model:  
Energy(t) = a0 + a1Energy(t-1) + a2Pop(t) + u
Population till 2020 is known, so I assume it is a conditional forecasting. 
All I need is the confidence interval of my multiple-step ahead forecast and a graph showing observed data, predicted curve, forecast and shaddowed area of the confidence interval. 
Sorry if the question is too easy.
thanks, 
Sergio Goldbaum
 

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