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st: Gene-incidence question/simulation

From   moleps islon <>
Subject   st: Gene-incidence question/simulation
Date   Sun, 22 Mar 2009 15:37:07 +0100

Dear statalisters,
I'm studying a tumor A that has a probability (x) of a being linked to
a genetic mutation (B) that also predisposes (penetrance approx 65%(y)
by 70 years) to condition Z. Now I've got 217 cases of A that resulted
in 11 cases of Z over 8534 years of followup years (among the 217
cases). I need to determine the number of patients with B given that
there is also a background incidence of 6/100000 for Z.We know that
x<<y. Besides running a simulation is there a more analytical way of
estimating x and y given my data???

Best wishes,
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