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From |
"Lachenbruch, Peter" <Peter.Lachenbruch@oregonstate.edu> |

To |
<statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu> |

Subject |
RE: st: RE: Detection of disease |

Date |
Fri, 15 Aug 2008 09:05:46 -0700 |

The pedant in me wants to note that this result is based on the number of events being Poisson distributed. Good thought Ronan Tony Peter A. Lachenbruch Department of Public Health Oregon State University Corvallis, OR 97330 Phone: 541-737-3832 FAX: 541-737-4001 -----Original Message----- From: owner-statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu [mailto:owner-statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu] On Behalf Of Ronan Conroy Sent: Friday, August 15, 2008 8:38 AM To: statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu Subject: Re: st: RE: Detection of disease On 14 Aug 2008, at 16:57, On Behalf Of Carlo Georges wrote: > For example i need to detect with 95% confidence the abscence of > disease > in > a population where the presumed prevalence would be 20%. How lrge a > sample > size do I need to be 95% certain that the population is free from > disease. This is an impossible task, I think. A better approach would be to ask what the maximum disease prevalence would be to result in zero observed cases in a sample size N. There was a lovely paper years ago in JAMA called Hanley, J. A., & Lippman-Hand, A. (1983). If nothing goes wrong, is everything all right? Interpreting zero numerators. JAMA, 249(13), 1743-1745. Hanley and Lippman-Hand make the point that if zero events are observed in N cases, then the upper limit is roughly 3/N. This means that even if you observe no cases in 1,000 participants, the 95% CI for the rate is zero to 3.7 per thousand (I cheated and did a -cii- on this). So you can be 95% certain that the rate is no more than 3.7 per thousand or less. The topic is discussed in Eypasch E, Lefering R, Kum CK, Troidl H. Probability of adverse events that have not yet occurred: a statistical reminder. BMJ. 1995 Sep 2;311(7005):619-20. which is accessible online. http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/311/7005/619 Ronan Conroy ================================= rconroy@rcsi.ie Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland Epidemiology Department, Beaux Lane House, Dublin 2, Ireland +353 (0)1 402 2431 +353 (0)87 799 97 95 +353 (0)1 402 2764 (Fax - remember them?) http://www.flickr.com/photos/ronanconroy/sets/72157601895416740/ P Before printing, think about the environment * * For searches and help try: * http://www.stata.com/help.cgi?search * http://www.stata.com/support/statalist/faq * http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/ * * For searches and help try: * http://www.stata.com/help.cgi?search * http://www.stata.com/support/statalist/faq * http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/

**References**:**Re: st: No (basic) graphs in Stata 10.1***From:*Maarten buis <maartenbuis@yahoo.co.uk>

**st: Detection of disease***From:*"Carlo Georges" <georgesc@pt.lu>

**st: RE: Detection of disease***From:*"Lachenbruch, Peter" <Peter.Lachenbruch@oregonstate.edu>

**Re: st: RE: Detection of disease***From:*Ronan Conroy <rconroy@rcsi.ie>

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