cap log close
log using tbail1, replace
set more 1
drop _all

set obs 200
gen int karnofsk = 10+10*int(9.5*uniform())
gen byte icu = uniform()<.2
gen int survive = (-10-karnofsk)*log(uniform()) + 1
gen int t2 = -.15*karnofsk*log(uniform())
replace survive = t2 + 1 if icu
gen byte dead = survive<365
replace survive=365 if !dead

summ survive karnofsk
cox survive karnofsk, dead(dead)

bailey survive karnofsk, dead(dead) autofix(.01) trace lambda(.1)
msurface
mpredict , ptime(day30[30]) pparm(alpha[alpha] gamma[gamma] delta[delta])