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st: Ordered probit model: prediction exclusion?


From   Lisa Bryant <lbryant@unm.edu>
To   <statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu>
Subject   st: Ordered probit model: prediction exclusion?
Date   Mon, 22 Apr 2013 21:37:07 -0600

Stata Listers - 

I have a question about censoring data using an ordered probit regression predicting future ambition, with the DV = 1-city councilor, 2-state legislator, 3-mayor, 4-senator, 5-governor. The main independent variable is previously held elected office ranked in exactly the same way as the DV. However, if the IV takes on a value of 5 (a previous governor), it is impossible for that individual to run for governor again in this electoral system. So, any predicted probability of a previous governor running for governor again is meaningless even though the model thinks it is possible. Do you know of a way to account for this in the model?

Thanks for any suggestions - 
Lisa 


Lisa A. Bryant
PhD Candidate
Department of Political Science
University of New Mexico




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