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st: nbreg vs zinb


From   Simon Falck <simon.falck@abe.kth.se>
To   "statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu" <statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu>
Subject   st: nbreg vs zinb
Date   Wed, 14 Mar 2012 15:23:48 +0000

Dear Statlist, 

I´m regressing the number of start-ups, using count data. 

The data is clearly not Poisson.

Hence, I am using nbreg and zinb models. I have some concern regarding what is the most appropriate model in my situation. Both seem relevant.

Using the Long/Freese command, accordingly: countfit $dept $xlist, maxcount(10) nbreg zinb

The Tests and Fit Statistics indicate that both nb and zinb may be preferred if BIC, AIC and Voung is consulted, although p>0.05.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
NBRM           BIC= -2071.543          AIC=     2.714       Prefer  Over      Evidence
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
  vs ZINB      BIC= -2046.607            dif=   -24.935     NBRM    ZINB     Very strong
                      AIC=     2.720                 dif=    -0.005        NBRM    ZINB
                      Vuong=   1.292            prob=    0.098     ZINB      NBRM  p=0.098    

What would be your suggestion regarding choice of model in my situation?

Thanks in advance,
/Simon

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