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st: RE: VEC: Missing Output Data


From   DE SOUZA Eric <eric.de_souza@coleurope.eu>
To   "statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu" <statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu>
Subject   st: RE: VEC: Missing Output Data
Date   Thu, 7 Jul 2011 13:24:27 +0200

Could you be more precise concerning where exactly there is a problem in your output because I don't see any? Keep in mind that the beta matrix is not identified unless you specify identification restrictions. Therefore,  in order to estimate alpha and beta Stata imposes the Johansen normalization restrictions.  In symbols, B =[I B2], where B is 4 x 6 in your case, I is 4 x 4 and B2  is 4 x2.

Eric


Eric de Souza
College of Europe
Brugge (Bruges), Belgium
http://www.coleurope.eu


-----Original Message-----
From: owner-statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu [mailto:owner-statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu] On Behalf Of Barbara Engels
Sent: 07 July 2011 12:05
To: statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu
Subject: st: VEC: Missing Output Data

Dear Statalist,

using Stata 10 I tried to estimate a VEC.
First, I estimated a VAR, then used VARSOC to estimate the optimal lag. Then I tried to determine the rank of cointegration with vecrank, lags(optimal lag according to varsoc) which yielded an optimal rank of 4. Then I tried to estimate the vec with the option rank(4). I do not really understand the output - it lacks values in the cointegrating equations and automatically drops a variable. I would appreciate it very much if somebody could have a look. How would my ECM look like?

 This is the output from the VAR to the VEC:

. var tfp_in lnbrd lnfrd lllneduexp llnftl impshare

Vector autoregression

Sample:  1984 - 2009                               No. of obs      =        26
Log likelihood =  225.8472                         AIC             = -11.37286
FPE            =  8.37e-13                         HQIC            = -10.28601
Det(Sigma_ml)  =  1.15e-15                         SBIC            = -7.598575

Equation           Parms      RMSE     R-sq      chi2     P>chi2
----------------------------------------------------------------
tfp_in               13     .025724   0.9532   529.0289   0.0000
lnbrd                13     .011816   0.9997   101844.4   0.0000
lnfrd                13     .099427   0.8283   125.4121   0.0000
lllneduexp           13     .011501   0.9878   2097.597   0.0000
llnftl               13     .753122   0.7185   66.35811   0.0000
impshare             13     3.57439   0.8761   183.8664   0.0000
----------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
tfp_in       |
      tfp_in |
         L1. |     .65481   .2163306     3.03   0.002     .2308098     1.07881
         L2. |  -.2362683   .1910051    -1.24   0.216    -.6106314    .1380948
       lnbrd |
         L1. |   .0440824   .2533383     0.17   0.862    -.4524516    .5406163
         L2. |   .0657006   .2519613     0.26   0.794    -.4281344    .5595357
       lnfrd |
         L1. |   .0336617   .0512979     0.66   0.512    -.0668804    .1342037
         L2. |  -.0451263   .0580456    -0.78   0.437    -.1588936    .0686409
  lllneduexp |
         L1. |  -.6819817   .3510674    -1.94   0.052    -1.370061    .0060979
         L2. |  -.0334756   .4254052    -0.08   0.937    -.8672544    .8003033
      llnftl |
         L1. |  -.0028725   .0064259    -0.45   0.655    -.0154671    .0097221
         L2. |   .0069503   .0065758     1.06   0.291     -.005938    .0198386
    impshare |
         L1. |  -.0005763    .001654    -0.35   0.728    -.0038181    .0026655
         L2. |  -.0040963    .001606    -2.55   0.011    -.0072441   -.0009485
       _cons |   5.334034    2.52423     2.11   0.035     .3866338    10.28143
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lnbrd        |
      tfp_in |
         L1. |   .0924973    .099366     0.93   0.352    -.1022566    .2872511
         L2. |   .1548926   .0877334     1.77   0.077    -.0170618     .326847
       lnbrd |
         L1. |   1.381761   .1163646    11.87   0.000     1.153691    1.609832
         L2. |  -.4635239   .1157321    -4.01   0.000    -.6903547   -.2366931
       lnfrd |
         L1. |   .0493005   .0235624     2.09   0.036     .0031191     .095482
         L2. |  -.0384771   .0266618    -1.44   0.149    -.0907332     .013779
  lllneduexp |
         L1. |   .3975376   .1612541     2.47   0.014     .0814854    .7135897
         L2. |   .2921301   .1953992     1.50   0.135    -.0908454    .6751056
      llnftl |
         L1. |  -.0038576   .0029516    -1.31   0.191    -.0096426    .0019274
         L2. |  -.0000343   .0030204    -0.01   0.991    -.0059542    .0058856
    impshare |
         L1. |   .0028117   .0007597     3.70   0.000     .0013227    .0043008
         L2. |   .0013202   .0007377     1.79   0.074    -.0001256    .0027661
       _cons |  -5.365771   1.159442    -4.63   0.000    -7.638236   -3.093306
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lnfrd        |
      tfp_in |
         L1. |    .331179     .83615     0.40   0.692    -1.307645    1.970003
         L2. |   .3559132   .7382633     0.48   0.630    -1.091056    1.802883
       lnbrd |
         L1. |  -.6751184   .9791905    -0.69   0.491    -2.594297     1.24406
         L2. |   .5778664    .973868     0.59   0.553     -1.33088    2.486613
       lnfrd |
         L1. |    .084372   .1982741     0.43   0.670    -.3042381    .4729821
         L2. |   .1093997   .2243549     0.49   0.626    -.3303278    .5491271
  lllneduexp |
         L1. |   .5817196   1.356928     0.43   0.668    -2.077811     3.24125
         L2. |   .6632462   1.644255     0.40   0.687    -2.559434    3.885926
      llnftl |
         L1. |  -.0247996   .0248372    -1.00   0.318    -.0734796    .0238804
         L2. |  -.0124169   .0254164    -0.49   0.625    -.0622322    .0373983
    impshare |
         L1. |  -.0008185    .006393    -0.13   0.898    -.0133486    .0117116
         L2. |  -.0039797   .0062076    -0.64   0.521    -.0161464    .0081869
       _cons |   2.003561   9.756528     0.21   0.837    -17.11888      21.126
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lllneduexp   |
      tfp_in |
         L1. |  -.2840046    .096718    -2.94   0.003    -.4735684   -.0944407
         L2. |   .4418154   .0853954     5.17   0.000     .2744435    .6091873
       lnbrd |
         L1. |   .1886278   .1132636     1.67   0.096    -.0333648    .4106204
         L2. |  -.1852099    .112648    -1.64   0.100    -.4059959     .035576
       lnfrd |
         L1. |  -.0517556   .0229345    -2.26   0.024    -.0967064   -.0068048
         L2. |   .0145555   .0259513     0.56   0.575    -.0363081     .065419
  lllneduexp |
         L1. |   1.402855   .1569568     8.94   0.000     1.095225    1.710484
         L2. |   -.448848    .190192    -2.36   0.018    -.8216176   -.0760785
      llnftl |
         L1. |  -.0100522   .0028729    -3.50   0.000     -.015683   -.0044214
         L2. |   .0044507   .0029399     1.51   0.130    -.0013115    .0102128
    impshare |
         L1. |   .0010691   .0007395     1.45   0.148    -.0003803    .0025184
         L2. |  -.0000456    .000718    -0.06   0.949    -.0014529    .0013618
       _cons |   .8822863   1.128544     0.78   0.434    -1.329619    3.094192
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
llnftl       |
      tfp_in |
         L1. |  -5.539901   6.333509    -0.87   0.382    -17.95335    6.873547
         L2. |  -12.22055   5.592055    -2.19   0.029    -23.18078   -1.260325
       lnbrd |
         L1. |  -3.867342   7.416984    -0.52   0.602    -18.40436    10.66968
         L2. |   9.024804   7.376668     1.22   0.221      -5.4332    23.48281
       lnfrd |
         L1. |   2.302315   1.501849     1.53   0.125    -.6412535    5.245885
         L2. |   5.007128     1.6994     2.95   0.003     1.676365    8.337891
  lllneduexp |
         L1. |  -3.803325    10.2782    -0.37   0.711    -23.94822    16.34157
         L2. |  -20.59904   12.45458    -1.65   0.098    -45.00958    3.811496
      llnftl |
         L1. |   .0984467   .1881319     0.52   0.601    -.2702851    .4671784
         L2. |   -.308153   .1925193    -1.60   0.109    -.6854838    .0691779
    impshare |
         L1. |  -.0254903   .0484247    -0.53   0.599     -.120401    .0694204
         L2. |   .0920423     .04702     1.96   0.050    -.0001153    .1841999
       _cons |   56.59956   73.90187     0.77   0.444    -88.24544    201.4446
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
impshare     |
      tfp_in |
         L1. |     -39.64   30.05944    -1.32   0.187    -98.55542    19.27542
         L2. |  -28.55406   26.54043    -1.08   0.282    -80.57234    23.46423
       lnbrd |
         L1. |  -117.5115   35.20172    -3.34   0.001    -186.5056   -48.51741
         L2. |   122.4382   35.01037     3.50   0.000     53.81914    191.0573
       lnfrd |
         L1. |   12.43958   7.127917     1.75   0.081    -1.530877    26.41004
         L2. |   11.20726   8.065516     1.39   0.165    -4.600855    27.01538
  lllneduexp |
         L1. |  -192.0773   48.78132    -3.94   0.000     -287.687   -96.46772
         L2. |   129.7197   59.11065     2.19   0.028     13.86497    245.5745
      llnftl |
         L1. |   .2514531    .892892     0.28   0.778    -1.498583    2.001489
         L2. |  -1.482199    .913715    -1.62   0.105    -3.273048    .3086493
    impshare |
         L1. |   .0329463   .2298284     0.14   0.886     -.417509    .4834016
         L2. |   .3255006   .2231616     1.46   0.145    -.1118881    .7628893
       _cons |   196.4616   350.7454     0.56   0.575    -490.9867    883.9099
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. varsoc

   Selection-order criteria
   Sample:  1984 - 2009                         Number of obs      =        26
  +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  |lag |    LL      LR      df    p      FPE       AIC      HQIC      SBIC    |
  |----+----------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |  0 |   8.4835                      3.3e-08  -.191038  -.107434   .099292  |
  |  1 |  162.371  307.78   36  0.000  4.2e-12  -9.25934  -8.67411  -7.22703  |
  |  2 |  225.847  126.95*  36  0.000  8.4e-13* -11.3729*  -10.286* -7.59858* |
  +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
   Endogenous:  tfp_in lnbrd lnfrd lllneduexp llnftl impshare
    Exogenous:  _cons

. vecrank tfp_in lnbrd lnfrd lllneduexp llnftl impshare, lags(2)

                       Johansen tests for cointegration
Trend: constant                                         Number of obs =      26
Sample:  1984 - 2009                                             Lags =       2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                         5%
maximum                                      trace    critical
  rank    parms       LL       eigenvalue  statistic    value
    0      42      154.06063           .    143.5732    94.15
    1      53      180.39351     0.86809     90.9075    68.52
    2      62      196.23128     0.70426     59.2319    47.21
    3      69      208.44712     0.60925     34.8002    29.68
    4      74      218.22579     0.52867     15.2429*   15.41
    5      77      223.79015     0.34821      4.1142     3.76
    6      78      225.84724     0.14635
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.  vec tfp_in lnbrd lnfrd lllneduexp llnftl impshare, rank(4)

Vector error-correction model

Sample:  1984 - 2009                               No. of obs      =        26
                                                   AIC             = -11.09429
Log likelihood =  218.2258                         HQIC            = -10.06317
Det(Sigma_ml)  =  2.06e-15                         SBIC            = -7.513555

Equation           Parms      RMSE     R-sq      chi2     P>chi2
----------------------------------------------------------------
D_tfp_in             11     .027817   0.5453   16.78786   0.1143
D_lnbrd              11      .01154   0.9852   931.3983   0.0000
D_lnfrd              11     .103193   0.4347   10.76498   0.4632
D_lllneduexp         11     .010754   0.8209   64.18541   0.0000
D_llnftl             11     .718578   0.6251   23.34033   0.0158
D_impshare           11     3.50918   0.6095   21.84974   0.0256
----------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
D_tfp_in     |
        _ce1 |
         L1. |   -.404082   .3392366    -1.19   0.234    -1.068974    .2608095
        _ce2 |
         L1. |   .0741768   .0860261     0.86   0.389    -.0944312    .2427849
        _ce3 |
         L1. |  -.0036027   .0887462    -0.04   0.968     -.177542    .1703366
        _ce4 |
         L1. |   -.578924   .5838856    -0.99   0.321    -1.723319    .5654707
      tfp_in |
         LD. |   .2646755   .3011667     0.88   0.379    -.3256005    .8549514
       lnbrd |
         LD. |  -.0193311   .3980992    -0.05   0.961    -.7995912     .760929
       lnfrd |
         LD. |   .0527215   .0880581     0.60   0.549    -.1198692    .2253122
  lllneduexp |
         LD. |  -.1928076   .6511809    -0.30   0.767    -1.469099    1.083483
      llnftl |
         LD. |  -.0088065    .009419    -0.93   0.350    -.0272675    .0096544
    impshare |
         LD. |   .0037426   .0024976     1.50   0.134    -.0011526    .0086379
       _cons |   .0145784   .0217411     0.67   0.503    -.0280335    .0571902
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
D_lnbrd      |
        _ce1 |
         L1. |   .2926754   .1407311     2.08   0.038     .0168475    .5685033
        _ce2 |
         L1. |  -.0912485   .0356876    -2.56   0.011     -.161195   -.0213021
        _ce3 |
         L1. |   .0136096    .036816     0.37   0.712    -.0585486    .0857677
        _ce4 |
         L1. |   .7250033   .2422229     2.99   0.003     .2502552    1.199751
      tfp_in |
         LD. |  -.1482333    .124938    -1.19   0.235    -.3931073    .0966406
       lnbrd |
         LD. |   .4749307   .1651501     2.88   0.004     .1512426    .7986189
       lnfrd |
         LD. |   .0399518   .0365306     1.09   0.274    -.0316468    .1115505
  lllneduexp |
         LD. |  -.3497758   .2701401    -1.29   0.195    -.8792408    .1796891
      llnftl |
         LD. |  -.0004892   .0039074    -0.13   0.900    -.0081476    .0071693
    impshare |
         LD. |   -.001414   .0010361    -1.36   0.172    -.0034448    .0006167
       _cons |   .0139538   .0090192     1.55   0.122    -.0037235    .0316312
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
D_lnfrd      |
        _ce1 |
         L1. |   1.525291   1.258464     1.21   0.226    -.9412534    3.991835
        _ce2 |
         L1. |  -.4015444   .3191305    -1.26   0.208    -1.027029    .2239398
        _ce3 |
         L1. |  -.5009449   .3292212    -1.52   0.128    -1.146207    .1443169
        _ce4 |
         L1. |   2.054606   2.166037     0.95   0.343    -2.190748     6.29996
      tfp_in |
         LD. |  -.4259063   1.117236    -0.38   0.703    -2.615649    1.763837
       lnbrd |
         LD. |  -.5073326   1.476826    -0.34   0.731    -3.401859    2.387194
       lnfrd |
         LD. |  -.2333727   .3266686    -0.71   0.475    -.8736314    .4068861
  lllneduexp |
         LD. |  -1.689169   2.415682    -0.70   0.484    -6.423819     3.04548
      llnftl |
         LD. |  -.0134149   .0349416    -0.38   0.701    -.0818992    .0550694
    impshare |
         LD. |    .001095   .0092654     0.12   0.906    -.0170648    .0192549
       _cons |  -.0004642    .080653    -0.01   0.995    -.1585411    .1576128
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
D_lllneduexp |
        _ce1 |
         L1. |   .1712183    .131153     1.31   0.192    -.0858368    .4282735
        _ce2 |
         L1. |  -.0027881   .0332587    -0.08   0.933    -.0679741    .0623978
        _ce3 |
         L1. |  -.0296783   .0343104    -0.86   0.387    -.0969254    .0375687
        _ce4 |
         L1. |  -.0314244   .2257373    -0.14   0.889    -.4738614    .4110125
      tfp_in |
         LD. |  -.4449448   .1164347    -3.82   0.000    -.6731527   -.2167369
       lnbrd |
         LD. |   .1848759     .15391     1.20   0.230    -.1167821     .486534
       lnfrd |
         LD. |  -.0181117   .0340443    -0.53   0.595    -.0848374     .048614
  lllneduexp |
         LD. |   .4328647   .2517545     1.72   0.086     -.060565    .9262944
      llnftl |
         LD. |  -.0050318   .0036415    -1.38   0.167     -.012169    .0021054
    impshare |
         LD. |  -.0000125   .0009656    -0.01   0.990    -.0019051      .00188
       _cons |   .0155602   .0084054     1.85   0.064     -.000914    .0320345
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
D_llnftl     |
        _ce1 |
         L1. |  -17.10798   8.763211    -1.95   0.051    -34.28356    .0675961
        _ce2 |
         L1. |   4.579395   2.222239     2.06   0.039     .2238872    8.934903
        _ce3 |
         L1. |   8.219607   2.292505     3.59   0.000      3.72638    12.71283
        _ce4 |
         L1. |  -23.35966   15.08302    -1.55   0.121    -52.92184    6.202517
      tfp_in |
         LD. |   11.65381   7.779785     1.50   0.134    -3.594283    26.90191
       lnbrd |
         LD. |  -9.342583   10.28376    -0.91   0.364    -29.49838    10.81321
       lnfrd |
         LD. |  -5.504601    2.27473    -2.42   0.016     -9.96299   -1.046212
  lllneduexp |
         LD. |   19.90926    16.8214     1.18   0.237    -13.06008    52.87861
      llnftl |
         LD. |   .2452549   .2433131     1.01   0.313      -.23163    .7221399
    impshare |
         LD. |  -.0973313   .0645189    -1.51   0.131    -.2237859    .0291234
       _cons |   .0000127   .5616204     0.00   1.000    -1.100743    1.100769
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
D_impshare   |
        _ce1 |
         L1. |  -88.94783   42.79524    -2.08   0.038     -172.825   -5.070695
        _ce2 |
         L1. |    12.2211   10.85233     1.13   0.260    -9.049078    33.49127
        _ce3 |
         L1. |   16.56085   11.19548     1.48   0.139    -5.381875    38.50358
        _ce4 |
         L1. |  -82.11431   73.65811    -1.11   0.265    -226.4815    62.25293
      tfp_in |
         LD. |   29.92695   37.99267     0.79   0.431    -44.53732    104.3912
       lnbrd |
         LD. |  -124.4466   50.22086    -2.48   0.013    -222.8777   -26.01557
       lnfrd |
         LD. |  -8.419597   11.10867    -0.76   0.448    -30.19219      13.353
  lllneduexp |
         LD. |  -104.2414   82.14752    -1.27   0.204    -265.2476     56.7648
      llnftl |
         LD. |   2.091712   1.188223     1.76   0.078    -.2371618    4.420585
    impshare |
         LD. |  -.2562152   .3150787    -0.81   0.416    -.8737582    .3613277
       _cons |  -7.67e-07    2.74268    -0.00   1.000    -5.375555    5.375553
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cointegrating equations

Equation           Parms    chi2     P>chi2
-------------------------------------------
_ce1                  2    51.7464   0.0000
_ce2                  2   33.25322   0.0000
_ce3                  2   65.03145   0.0000
_ce4                  2   37.05269   0.0000
-------------------------------------------

Identification:  beta is exactly identified
                 Johansen normalization restrictions imposed
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        beta |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_ce1         |
      tfp_in |          1          .        .       .            .           .
       lnbrd |   6.25e-17          .        .       .            .           .
       lnfrd |   5.55e-17          .        .       .            .           .
  lllneduexp |  -3.33e-16          .        .       .            .           .
      llnftl |  -.0461967   .0200468    -2.30   0.021    -.0854877   -.0069057
    impshare |   .0132646   .0020457     6.48   0.000     .0092551    .0172741
       _cons |  -.3241717          .        .       .            .           .
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_ce2         |
      tfp_in |  -1.44e-15          .        .       .            .           .
       lnbrd |          1          .        .       .            .           .
       lnfrd |   9.99e-16          .        .       .            .           .
  lllneduexp |  -1.78e-15          .        .       .            .           .
      llnftl |     1.2364   .2525998     4.89   0.000     .7413137    1.731487
    impshare |   .0933262   .0257768     3.62   0.000     .0428047    .1438477
       _cons |  -24.66017          .        .       .            .           .
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_ce3         |
      tfp_in |  -8.71e-16          .        .       .            .           .
       lnbrd |   6.25e-17          .        .       .            .           .
       lnfrd |          1          .        .       .            .           .
  lllneduexp |   7.22e-16          .        .       .            .           .
      llnftl |  -.4141496   .0588032    -7.04   0.000    -.5294018   -.2988975
    impshare |   .0182635   .0060006     3.04   0.002     .0065025    .0300245
       _cons |   -11.8882          .        .       .            .           .
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_ce4         |
      tfp_in |   1.25e-16          .        .       .            .           .
       lnbrd |  -1.39e-16          .        .       .            .           .
       lnfrd |  -1.67e-16          .        .       .            .           .
  lllneduexp |          1          .        .       .            .           .
      llnftl |   .1783574   .0330065     5.40   0.000     .1136659    .2430489
    impshare |   .0115786   .0033682     3.44   0.001     .0049771      .01818
       _cons |  -10.50126          .        .       .            .           .
------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Thank you very much!
Barbara
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