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st: Simulating failure times using discrete-time event history analysis

From   "Wallace, Geoffrey P" <>
To   "" <>
Subject   st: Simulating failure times using discrete-time event history analysis
Date   Wed, 7 Jul 2010 11:03:22 -0400

Dear Statalisters,

I am conducting an event history analysis using discrete-time data looking at the decision to ratify a number of international human rights treaties. The unit of analysis is the country-year. The main specification for the models is as follows, which uses cubic splines and a count variable to capture duration dependence.

. logit treatyvar indepvars timecount spline1 spline2 spline3, vce(cluster country)

To explore substantive effects I've used the Clarify ado package to estimate the predicted probability of failure (ratify the treaty) based on different values for the explanatory variables.

Rather than just the probability of failure, what I want to do is estimate the probable length of time it would take to fail based on setting different values for the explanatory variables, measured by the number of years, though still allowing for a fraction of a year (e.g. 2.5 years). I think it makes most sense to specify the length of time until failure as occurring once Probability(failure) is greater than 0.5, but I'm having trouble figuring out how to do this in Stata.

Any help would be appreciated.

Best, Geoff Wallace

Geoffrey Wallace
Assistant Professor
Department of Political Science
1657 Patterson Office Tower
University of Kentucky
Lexington, KY 40506-0027
tel. 859-257-2709
fax. 859-257-7034

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