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Re: st: Poll of polls


From   "Casey P. Durand" <durandca@usc.edu>
To   statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu
Subject   Re: st: Poll of polls
Date   Tue, 22 Jun 2010 15:11:19 -0700

I can't offer much in the way of substance here, but what you are
describing sounds very similar to the methodology Nate Silver uses to
aggregate results of many political polls at Fivethirtyeight.com, and
I know he does use Stata for this.

See the FAQ section:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/03/frequently-asked-questions-last-revised.html


On Tue, Jun 22, 2010 at 2:58 PM, Richard Ohrvall
<richard.ohrvall@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Dear all,
>
> I am sorry if this is a bit too unspecific, but I am currently looking
> into what is usually called "poll of polls", i.e. techniques to take
> estimates from different opinion polls and estimating time series. I
> know, it is outside of established statistical theory, but I am
> playing around with political opinion polls to look at different
> methods to achieve time series. Some of the issues are a) how to
> handle "house effects", i.e. that different pollsters systematically
> diverge from others, b) how to smooth the data over time, e.g. some
> sort of moving average. So, my questions are 1) if any of you have
> seen anything done on this using Stata? 2) Do you have any
> ideas/suggestions about the best way to tackle this (e.g. if -lowess-
> is a path worth exploring)?
>
> Once again, sorry if this is too vague, but if you have any ideas or
> suggestions, it would be greatly appreciated.
>
> All the best,
> Richard
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