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From |
Roy Wada <roywada@gmail.com> |

To |
statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu |

Subject |
Re: st: re: SSC Activity, November 2009 |

Date |
Sun, 6 Dec 2009 16:27:01 -0800 |

> I am going to add the following because I don't like the idea of > someone given a license to keep on doing this: As I said before I am making this post because this has gone on long enough and I do not want to see Kit giving an official validation or imprimatur to download numbers which do not look right. This will only encourage more manipulations. Judging by the collective silence on this popular topic, I suspect many people also have uneasy feelings that there is something amiss about these download numbers. Kit has spent tremendous time and effort developing ssc and it's very unfortunate that this is being done through ssc. Disclaimer: these are numbers obtained and crunched by me. If I made a gross error, contact me to have it fixed or issue an addendum. Note that I am only presenting numbers with possible explanations. I do not say or imply who did the downloading. I do not say or imply, for example, that Edwin Leuven and Barbara Sianesi manipuated psmatch2 numbers. That would be silly. psmatch is included here because it had download number of 500 or more at some time since Jan 2005 and still in circulation. Richard Williams will be happy to know that mfx2 is included in the list on pure merit. I did not discriminate. There are several sources for ssc programs. One is through -ssc install- command. This method is virtually costly, meaning can be easily download by thousands. The other method is through RePEc websites. This is a manual method. The only people who go through this method are the ones who really want it. I have downloaded the ssc statistics (Kit's monthly plus whatshot, I used logout for this) and matched them to the RePEc download history. In order to make them comparable, RePEc was converted into a moving 3-month average x 10. The ssc statistics prior to Nov 2007 was also converted into a 3-month average. The basic premise is that the two series must track each other. The Excel graphs are uploaded here. They have sufficient resolution; you only need to zoom in. If they get knocked off (go offline or do not work), I will upload the raw numbers. http://profile.imageshack.us/user/roywada/ The graphs are numbered from right to left. The graph 1 is on the RIGHT. In the graph 1 (on the right side), mat2txt and psmatch2 are clearly "manipulated". The pink repec line and the blue ssc line diverge for several months and then re-converge. outreg shows up as it should: the two close lines track each other (the pink repec line lags the blue ssc line). In the graph 2 (the one next to the right-most one), both outreg2 and tabout are moving up and looking as they should. Could I have kown this and manipuated outreg2 precisely? If I did that, I would have had to download each ado files (4 of them) and may be 3 help files for 40 times each (which is about 20%), which would mean 280 manual download per months for several years. Should I have cleared the cookies after each visit? I don't know. Even then it would have been a risky operation because the two lines can easily become divergent and it will show up. As some people have found out, outreg2 is not even fully documented, and I don't add functionalities that can be easily added. The best explanation for outreg2 is that it doesn't have to be manipuated and I have no interest in doing so. The problem is estout. The blue ssc line for estout breaks the trend aroud Sep 2008, and breaks again around Jan 2009. Note that the blue line keeps going up while the pink line is trending down. There is no good reason for this divergence considering that the two lines have previously tracked each other. estout was updated around Jan 2009 but the functionality added at that time overlapped other existing programs and should not have had that much impact. If you believe what the pink line is saying, the download numbers for estout have basically moved sideways since the middle of 2007 and possibly trending downward. If anyone is keeping track of the calendar, the massive manipulation began around Sep 2008 with mat2txt. It then briefly moved on to psmatch2. mat2txt subsided around the end of spring. By that time estout is in full swing. I find the timing to be very interesting. I also find the choice of programs very interesting. An outside possibility is that the manipulation was done for the purpose of casting suspicion in that direction but this seems too much work just for that. Roy The graphs 3, 4, 5, and 6 are discussed at the end of this post (mfx2 is in there). They are included here for completeness sake: In the graph 3, ivreg2 looks at it should. xml_tab has a surge, courtesy of its introduction at a Stata conference (by me). Similar introduction must have happend to mfx2, but I don't know who did that one. In the graph 4, overid look okay. gllamm and ranktest has tendency to diverge but they always diverge, which means the trend between the pink and the blue lines hold. In the graph 5, whitetst and xtabond2 look okay. xcollapse has a singular peak but that sometimes happens to a program that has not been updated in a while. In the graph 6, xtivreg2 looks okay. * * For searches and help try: * http://www.stata.com/help.cgi?search * http://www.stata.com/support/statalist/faq * http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/

**Follow-Ups**:**RE: st: re: SSC Activity, November 2009***From:*"Nick Cox" <n.j.cox@durham.ac.uk>

**Re: st: re: SSC Activity, November 2009***From:*Roy Wada <roywada@gmail.com>

**Re: st: re: SSC Activity, November 2009***From:*Roy Wada <roywada@gmail.com>

**References**:**st: re: SSC Activity, November 2009***From:*Kit Baum <baum@bc.edu>

**Re: st: re: SSC Activity, November 2009***From:*Roy Wada <roywada@gmail.com>

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