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From |
<Andrew.Clapson@statcan.gc.ca> |

To |
<statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu> |

Subject |
RE: st: probability question |

Date |
Wed, 28 Oct 2009 10:08:31 -0400 |

Isn't the probability of the client wearing a hat 4/120? -----Original Message----- From: owner-statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu [mailto:owner-statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu] On Behalf Of vmz@vol.net.mt Sent: October 28, 2009 9:59 AM To: statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu Subject: Re: st: probability question the probability that it rains on a given day is 7/120.The probability that it rains on three given days is [7/120]^3.The probability that the client is wearing a hat is 3/4.The probability that it rains on three given days and that the client is wearing a hat is [[7/120]^3] * 3/4 = 00014887,the way I see it. n 28/10/2009, "Richard Williams" <Richard.A.Williams.5@ND.edu> wrote: >At 08:22 AM 10/28/2009, Jeph Herrin wrote: > >>Prob(rain) = 7/120 >>Prob(no rain) = 113/120 >> >>X=days it rains on hat >> >>Prob(X=3)=c(4,3)*(7/120)^3*(113/120)^1 >> =4*0.0001985*0.94 >> =0.0007477 >> >> >>not much chance! > >Don't the probabilities change though? e.g. if it rains on the first >day, then the probability of rain on the 2nd day is 6/119. > >Maybe Maarten can just run a couple million simulations for us... > > >------------------------------------------- >Richard Williams, Notre Dame Dept of Sociology >OFFICE: (574)631-6668, (574)631-6463 >HOME: (574)289-5227 >EMAIL: Richard.A.Williams.5@ND.Edu >WWW: http://www.nd.edu/~rwilliam > >* >* For searches and help try: >* http://www.stata.com/help.cgi?search >* http://www.stata.com/support/statalist/faq >* http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/ > > * * For searches and help try: * http://www.stata.com/help.cgi?search * http://www.stata.com/support/statalist/faq * http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/ * * For searches and help try: * http://www.stata.com/help.cgi?search * http://www.stata.com/support/statalist/faq * http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/

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