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Re: st: RE: RE: probability question


From   Richard Goldstein <richgold@ix.netcom.com>
To   statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu
Subject   Re: st: RE: RE: probability question
Date   Wed, 28 Oct 2009 09:49:02 -0400

thank you!

Feiveson, Alan H. (JSC-SK311) wrote:
> The reason why I think the retrospective (i.e. finite sampling) approach is needed here is that we are given that it rains (rained?) exactly 7 of the days, not that the probability of rain is 7/120 on any given day.
> 
> Al Feiveson
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu [mailto:owner-statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu] On Behalf Of Feiveson, Alan H. (JSC-SK311)
> Sent: Wednesday, October 28, 2009 8:34 AM
> To: statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu
> Subject: st: RE: probability question
> 
> If you look at this retrospectively, you can use the hypergeometric distribution. Suppose we are given that it rained 7 of the 120 days and that the client wore the hat on 4 of those days. The probability that it rained on 3 of the four hat days would then be 
> 
> (7C3 x 113C1 )/(120C4) = .00048146 (I think).
> 
> whew aCb refers to a things taken b at a time
> 
> 
> Here "probability" refers to a repeated experiment in which one picks 4 of the 120 days at random to wear the hat, without knowledge of which of those are the rain days.
> 
> Al Feiveson
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu [mailto:owner-statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu] On Behalf Of Richard Goldstein
> Sent: Wednesday, October 28, 2009 7:38 AM
> To: statalist
> Subject: st: probability question
> 
> it's been a long time since I thought about questions like this, but, as
> a lead-in to a study, a client has asked the following question which he
> thinks he understands and says is related to where he wants to go:
> 
> during a consecutive period of 120 days, if it rains on 7 days and my
> client wears a hat on 4 days (these are independent of any knowledge of
> the weather), what is the probability that it will rain on 3 of the days
> on which he is wearing a hat?
> 
> my client swears that this is not a homework problem for him or his wife
> or one of their kids!
> 
> Rich
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