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st: RE: probability question


From   "Visintainer PhD, Paul" <Paul.Visintainer@baystatehealth.org>
To   "'statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu'" <statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu>
Subject   st: RE: probability question
Date   Wed, 28 Oct 2009 08:48:46 -0400

I'm probably thinking of this too simplistically, but wouldn't this just be a Fisher's exact test?


. tabi 3 1 \ 4 112, exact   /* where col = rain and row = hat */

           |          col
       row |         1          2 |     Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
         1 |         3          1 |         4 
         2 |         4        112 |       116 
-----------+----------------------+----------
     Total |         7        113 |       120 

           Fisher's exact =                 0.000
   1-sided Fisher's exact =                 0.000

. return list

scalars:
           r(p1_exact) =  .0004857223202188
            r(p_exact) =  .0004857223202188
                  r(c) =  2
                  r(r) =  2
                  r(N) =  120


___________________________________
Paul F. Visintainer, PhD

-----Original Message-----
From: owner-statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu [mailto:owner-statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu] On Behalf Of Richard Goldstein
Sent: Wednesday, October 28, 2009 8:38 AM
To: statalist
Subject: st: probability question

it's been a long time since I thought about questions like this, but, as
a lead-in to a study, a client has asked the following question which he
thinks he understands and says is related to where he wants to go:

during a consecutive period of 120 days, if it rains on 7 days and my
client wears a hat on 4 days (these are independent of any knowledge of
the weather), what is the probability that it will rain on 3 of the days
on which he is wearing a hat?

my client swears that this is not a homework problem for him or his wife
or one of their kids!

Rich
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