# st: Questions related to -predict-, -adjust-, and predictive margins

 From "Michael I. Lichter" To statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu Subject st: Questions related to -predict-, -adjust-, and predictive margins Date Wed, 24 Sep 2008 15:53:40 -0400

Question 1: How do you calculate SEs for predicted probabilities for data that require weights or are from a complex sample design? I've seen the FAQ about how to do this in general, but I suspect that the FAQ's advice is not correct for weighted data/data from complex samples.

Question 2: -adjust, pr ci- produces confidence intervals for proportions. Is it not the case that SE = (UB - LB)/(2 * 1.96) given a 95% confidence interval (assuming that weights/design are not a problem)?

Question 3: I want to calculate predictive margins (predictions where every element is treated as if it belonged to a given group, but otherwise the elements' own values are used in the prediction), AND I want to be able to test for equality of predicted proportions. From what I glean from an recent article in NEJM, SUDAAN can do this, but I don't know how.

Here is an example that goes partway there:

. sysuse auto
. gen himpg = mpg > 25

. logit foreign himpg weight
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
foreign | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
himpg | -2.079449 .998357 -2.08 0.037 -4.036193 -.1227054
weight | -.0037159 .0009375 -3.96 0.000 -.0055534 -.0018785
_cons | 9.795139 2.632037 3.72 0.000 4.636442 14.95384
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dependent variable: foreign Command: logit
Variable left as is: weight
Covariate set to value: himpg = 0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------
All | pr lb ub
----------+-----------------------------------
| .193884 [.085888 .381067]
----------------------------------------------
Key: pr = Probability
[lb , ub] = [95% Confidence Interval]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dependent variable: foreign Command: logit
Variable left as is: weight
Covariate set to value: himpg = 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------
All | pr lb ub
----------+-----------------------------------
| .029187 [.003519 .203809]
----------------------------------------------
Key: pr = Probability
[lb , ub] = [95% Confidence Interval]

What can I say about the relationship between the predictions (aside from the obvious facts that they seem to be very different but their CIs are wide and overlap)?

All | pr lb ub
----------+-----------------------------------
| .193884 [.085888 .381067]
| .029187 [.003519 .203809]
----------------------------------------------
Key: pr = Probability
[lb , ub] = [95% Confidence Interval]
Thanks.

Michael

--
Michael I. Lichter, Ph.D.
Research Assistant Professor & NRSA Fellow
UB Department of Family Medicine / Primary Care Research Institute
UB Clinical Center, 462 Grider Street, Buffalo, NY 14215
Office: CC 125 / Phone: 716-898-4751 / E-Mail: mlichter@buffalo.edu

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