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st: zero-inflated Poisson distribution fitting for correlated count data


From   "Dr. Stephen Rothenberg" <srothenberg@mda.cinvestav.mx>
To   <statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu>
Subject   st: zero-inflated Poisson distribution fitting for correlated count data
Date   Sun, 11 Mar 2007 18:54:11 -0600

I'm trying to determine the parameters of a distribution of a time-series of
yearly number of disease cases over a 33 year period.  The series has many
zero values, and the variance is much larger than the mean (var=13.6,
mean=1.6).  Since the data is taken from one city over a number of years,
serial correlation may be expected.

My goal is to determine the probability of x number or greater cases in any
given year, given the entire series.

I'm looking for something like -nbfit- for correlated data.  Or -nbreg-
(with independent variables, like year) for correlated data.

Steve Rothenberg
CINVESTAV-IPN
Mérida, Yucatán
México



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