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Re: st: RE: interpreting the significance level of spearmans rank correlation


From   Maarten buis <maartenbuis@yahoo.co.uk>
To   statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu
Subject   Re: st: RE: interpreting the significance level of spearmans rank correlation
Date   Sat, 3 Jun 2006 16:07:18 +0100 (BST)

Unfortunately the interpretation isn't that simple: either you say that
you have chosen to reject the null hypothesis using a procedure that
incorrectly rejects the null in 5% of the times that that procedure is
used, or you say that the probability of finding the results you have
found if the null hypothesis were true is less than 5%. The probability
of finding the data given the hypothsis is not the same as the
probability of the hypothesis given the data, just as the probability
that an American is the president of the United States is not the same
as the probability that the president of the United States is an
American. 

If you want to make the statement that a hypothesis is true with a 95%
probability you'll have to go Bayesian.

HTH,
Maarten

--- Patric Mayer <patric.mayer@gmx.de> wrote:
> so, in my example, I can say that I found a significant correlation
> of 0.8804. (and this is true with a probability of 95%)? 


-----------------------------------------
Maarten L. Buis
Department of Social Research Methodology
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Boelelaan 1081
1081 HV Amsterdam
The Netherlands

visiting adress:
Buitenveldertselaan 3 (Metropolitan), room Z214

+31 20 5986715

http://home.fsw.vu.nl/m.buis/
-----------------------------------------

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