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st: RE: RE: counterfactuals


From   "Nick Winter" <nwinter@policystudies.com>
To   <statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu>
Subject   st: RE: RE: counterfactuals
Date   Thu, 3 Oct 2002 09:38:12 -0400

The -adjust- command may be what you are looking for.

Nick Winter


-----------------------------------------------------------
 Nicholas Winter, Ph.D.                     P 202.939.5343
 Policy Studies Associates                  F 202.939.5732
 1718 Connecticut Avenue, NW     nwinter@policystudies.com
 Washington, DC 20009-1148           www.policystudies.com
----------------------------------------------------------- 

> -----Original Message-----
> From: FEIVESON, ALAN H. (AL) (JSC-SD) (NASA) 
> [mailto:alan.h.feiveson1@jsc.nasa.gov] 
> Sent: Thursday, October 03, 2002 9:36 AM
> To: 'statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu'
> Subject: st: RE: counterfactuals
> 
> 
> Traci -
> 
> One way to do this is to take advantage of Stata's -predict- 
> command to do
> "out-of-sample" predictions. Just create some additional fake 
> observations
> with the characterisitics you want, but with missing values for the
> dependent variable. After estimation, the -predict- command 
> will generate
> predicted probabilities for these fake observations as well 
> as the real
> ones.
> 
> Al Feiveson
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Traci A Schlesinger [mailto:tracias@Princeton.EDU]
> Sent: Wednesday, October 02, 2002 8:02 PM
> To: statalist@hsphsun2.harvard.edu
> Subject: st: counterfactuals
> 
> 
> dear statalisters:
> 
> i tried to post this yesterday, but never saw it posted.  i 
> apologize if
> this is a double post.
> 
> I have county level data on criminal processing that includes whether
> the defendant is incarcerated pretrial and / or post-trial, as well as
> several legal variables regarding the type of offense the 
> individual was
> arrested for and details of their prior record, and extra-legal
> variables such as race and age.
> 
> i have used xtlogit, with county level fixed effects, to analyze this
> data, with specific interest in the effect of race and ethnicity on
> criminal processing.  i find that race and ethnicity affects both
> pretrial release decisions, and the decision to incarcerate given
> conviction.
> 
> as a next step, i wanted to create counterfactuals that would look at
> what the predicted probability of release would be for the black and
> latino defendants if they were white (e.g. what would be the 
> probability
> of being granted pretrial release if one had all of the legal
> characteristics of the black defendants but was white), or put
> differently, what would be the predicted probability of release for
> black defendants if the black coefficient equaled zero.
> 
> i understand how to use the predict command to get predicted
> probabilities, but don't know how to get predicted values for 
> this type
> of counterfactual situation.  i have read the manual and the 
> FAQs, but i
> am still lost.
> 
> any help would be greatly appreciated!!
> thanks in advance,
> traci a schlesinger
> 
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